Radiocarbon dating of peat accumulation Based on: J A Christen, R S Clymo and C D Litton (1995) " A Bayesian approach to the use of 14C dates in the estimation of the age of peat" Radiocarbon 37 (2) 431-442 © Andrew Millard 2001 model # simple linear peat mass accumulation { for (i in 1:nDate) { xdate[i] ~ dnorm(mu[i], tau[i]) tau[i] <- 1/(sigma[i]*sigma[i] + sigma.curve[i]*sigma.curve[i]) mu[i] <- interp.lin(theta[i], x[], y[]) sigma.curve[i] <- interp.lin(theta[i], x[], s.y[]) } for (i in 1:nDate) { theta[i] <- theta0 +m[i]*pinv } theta0 ~ dunif(min.theta, max.theta) mu.pinv <- -log(0.005) pinv ~ dlnorm(mu.pinv,4) p <- 1/pinv } } Data list(nDate=11, min.theta=1, max.theta=20000) Data from Table 2 of Christen et al. Ellergower Moss Peat Core m[] xdate[] sigma[] 0.17 120 60 0.51 220 60 0.72 110. 50 0.91 50 66 1.11 125 60 1.30 205 55 1.51 285 55 1.70 255 55 1.87 110 60 2.04 434 35 2.21 404 31 END Also load one of the calibration curves below. Christen et al. used the 1986 one. YR 14C age Error calBP YR BP YR x[] y[] s.y[] -5 0 23 5 190.1 5.5 15 158 5.1 25 138.1 3.6 35 109.7 3.5 45 79.4 4 55 80.9 4.3 65 101 4.2 75 116.9 4.5 85 117.6 4.6 95 120.8 5.4 105 115.8 4.8 115 115.1 4.2 125 99.4 4.2 135 107.5 4.7 145 156.2 4.8 155 202.1 5.1 165 216.2 5.4 175 168.5 4.4 185 171.5 4.8 195 157.9 3.9 205 165.1 4.5 215 153.5 5 225 114.4 4.1 235 94.8 3.3 245 104.6 3.2 255 115.1 3 265 138.5 4.2 275 173.2 4.7 285 210.5 4.8 295 242.8 5.1 305 269.1 4.8 315 309.6 4.7 325 334.4 4.7 335 351.9 4.9 345 365.4 4.7 355 340.6 5.2 365 333.7 5.3 375 330.6 5.5 385 327.8 5.2 395 318.5 5.5 405 309.9 4.6 415 301.1 4 425 321.2 5.2 435 351.6 5.5 445 354.2 8.7 455 351 12 465 371.4 15 475 393.1 16.1 485 403.4 12.1 495 403.7 9.9 505 427.8 13.7 515 477.8 16.4 525 501.8 15.5 535 521.9 14.8 545 552 14.3 555 590.8 14.6 565 629 11.6 575 661.2 12.8 585 623.5 12.3 595 624 13.3 605 596.5 13.4 615 566 11.5 625 607.5 11.9 635 620.1 11.5 645 623.5 9.7 655 684.6 14.9 665 715.6 14.4 675 767.1 19.1 685 774.1 13.1 695 801.8 12.7 705 803.3 18.7 715 814.1 13 725 804.6 10.5 735 842.1 16 745 869 16.1 755 853.2 16 765 876.8 15.4 775 883.7 12.2 785 868.4 10.2 795 929.1 12.4 805 958.9 10.3 815 905.1 12 825 912.5 14.5 835 942.5 11.8 845 943.6 11.1 855 936.9 11.3 865 918.8 8.8 875 904.1 8.8 885 917.5 9.6 895 923.8 10.4 905 922.9 11.5 915 957.2 11.3 925 977.1 14.1 935 1039.6 13.9 945 1025.6 13.9 955 1056.4 12.4 965 1066.3 12.3 975 1105.3 13.3 985 1102.1 13.2 995 1126.2 15.9 1005 1124.8 13.8 1015 1140.6 14.6 1025 1140.3 13.4 1035 1102.3 11.9 1045 1097.9 12.5 1055 1136.3 13.7 1065 1181.1 14.3 1075 1192.1 12.9 1085 1194 14 1095 1203.3 10.7 1105 1204.8 13.9 1115 1187.5 13.7 1125 1199.3 13.6 1135 1199.9 13.7 1145 1207 14.4 1155 1218.1 9.3 1165 1181 11.3 1175 1249.2 12.9 1185 1278 12.2 1195 1295.4 10.3 1205 1268.1 12.2 1215 1250.4 10.7 1225 1256.1 13.4 1235 1281.1 13.6 1245 1294.2 14.2 1255 1270.5 17.9 1265 1317.7 18.8 1275 1329.3 18.2 1285 1341.7 18.2 1295 1395.6 14.8 1305 1411.1 15.6 1315 1452.1 13.8 1325 1435.2 17.5 1335 1462.3 25.6 1345 1457.8 16.8 1355 1503.4 18 1365 1492.1 17.2 1375 1497.3 18.5 1385 1493.2 17.8 1395 1519 18.4 1405 1504.6 13.3 1415 1555 17.6 1425 1585 11.9 1435 1570.5 15.9 1445 1575.3 16.2 1455 1570.7 15.2 1465 1574.3 17.7 1475 1561.8 16.7 1485 1574.3 17.6 1495 1581.3 17.6 1505 1565.3 17.4 1515 1582.7 17.5 1525 1620.9 14.4 1535 1645.2 17.5 1545 1663.6 16.5 1555 1672.1 14.4 1565 1683.6 13.2 1575 1711.1 11.3 1585 1687.2 16.5 1595 1697.2 18 1605 1696.2 16.8 1615 1731.7 17.9 1625 1727.2 18 1635 1770.6 17.5 1645 1769.4 17.1 1655 1730.7 16.7 1665 1755.9 17.1 1675 1718.5 16.8 1685 1708.4 13.6 1695 1767.6 10.9 1705 1769.9 10.4 1715 1812.5 13.8 1725 1817 18 1735 1830 18.1 1745 1845.7 13.7 1755 1839 18 1765 1826.8 16.6 1775 1836.3 17.7 1785 1844.2 18.8 1795 1836.7 17 1805 1833.3 18 1815 1836.1 12.7 1825 1895.7 10.9 1835 1908.6 18.8 1845 1908.2 18.2 1855 1882 11.9 1865 1901.7 17.8 1875 1929.6 13 1885 1947.2 13.1 1895 1954 11.6 1905 1986.5 9.9 1915 1947.5 14.1 1925 1980.8 13 1935 2001.7 11.3 1945 1985.3 10 1955 2043.1 11.4 1965 2001.3 10.3 1975 2031.1 13 1985 2007.6 7.8 1995 2047.8 10.5 2005 2072.6 9.5 2015 2084.9 11 2025 2079.2 13.5 2035 2064.2 11.1 2045 2092.4 12.9 2055 2091.4 11.7 2065 2101.9 11.5 2075 2119.4 11.6 2085 2100.6 13.5 2095 2099.7 11.7 2105 2105.6 17.7 2115 2113.2 12 2125 2148.3 15.5 2135 2162 15.3 2145 2139.6 12 2155 2195 15.3 2165 2227.3 10.4 2175 2181.3 14.3 2185 2237.3 11.3 2195 2227.8 13.7 2205 2214.9 17 2215 2263.4 16.8 2225 2232.9 13.1 2235 2232 16.7 2245 2211.3 13.2 2255 2205.3 15.4 2265 2209.7 15.5 2275 2176.6 13.2 2285 2177.1 17.2 2295 2181.3 13 2305 2224.2 13 2315 2257.6 12.5 2325 2254.3 12.5 2335 2283.8 16.4 2345 2317.6 13.3 2355 2385.3 10.9 2365 2441 17.8 2375 2428.5 14.7 2385 2444.1 14.4 2395 2419.4 18.6 2405 2444.8 16.2 2415 2430.2 16 2425 2412.1 12.2 2435 2433.8 15.9 2445 2428.9 13.3 2455 2432.7 13.9 2465 2433.3 12.2 2475 2466.4 12.6 2485 2443.7 10.9 2495 2487.4 11.3 2505 2490.4 12.3 2515 2500.6 14.5 2525 2499.2 14.2 2535 2477.6 15.1 2545 2504.2 13.5 2555 2512.8 11.3 2565 2495.9 9.7 2575 2499.9 11.7 2585 2491.4 12.6 2595 2480 13 2605 2470.5 11.2 2615 2489.2 17.3 2625 2524 21.8 2635 2476 21.8 2645 2469.8 18.4 2655 2458.7 21.5 2665 2461 21.5 2675 2454.1 15.7 2685 2454.1 15.7 2695 2455.4 18.6 2705 2455.4 18.6 2715 2535.8 20.6 2725 2535.8 20.6 2735 2545.3 13 2745 2584.2 13 2755 2648.2 14.7 2765 2665.3 18.1 2775 2673.4 14.8 2785 2724.5 14.7 2795 2740.7 14.4 2805 2736.5 17.4 2815 2741.3 16.2 2825 2740.3 16.7 2835 2716.6 16.6 2845 2735.3 16.5 2855 2772.3 15.6 2865 2773.6 16 2875 2800.4 18.4 2885 2807.5 14.9 2895 2827.5 14.2 2905 2824.7 15.5 2915 2785.2 14.7 2925 2829.3 12.3 2935 2830.9 15 2945 2822.7 15 2955 2860.6 12.1 2965 2871.7 11.9 2975 2882.2 15.8 2985 2877.9 15.5 2995 2883.2 14.2 3005 2914 13.7 3015 2900.7 14.4 3025 2905.5 14.2 3035 2908.4 15.9 3045 2914 12.5 3055 2897.7 12.9 3065 2914.2 14 3075 2910.4 17 3085 2988.6 13 3095 2933.1 14.7 3105 2949.1 17.8 3115 2963 16.5 3125 2968.9 18.5 3135 2920.7 17.8 3145 2986.9 17.1 3155 2937.7 18 3165 2989.2 11.4 3175 3009.7 16.5 3185 2990.3 17.2 3195 2970.8 16.9 3205 2972.1 14.7 3215 3038.2 18.4 3225 3034.3 18 3235 3009.9 18.5 3245 3035.8 18.1 3255 3037.1 18.8 3265 3045.4 18.4 3275 3104.7 16.2 3285 3077.8 17.7 3295 3047 18 3305 3064.7 17.7 3315 3034.4 17.9 3325 3075.1 17.4 3335 3082.8 16.7 3345 3105.3 13.5 3355 3112.7 16.2 3365 3153.8 16.3 3375 3146.4 17.6 3385 3181.1 13.7 3395 3192.8 11.8 3405 3206.3 11.5 3415 3219.8 13.3 3425 3213.6 13.5 3435 3186.8 14.6 3445 3215 18.3 3455 3224.6 17 3465 3224.7 17.8 3475 3289.3 16.5 3485 3312.1 17.2 3495 3313.9 18.6 3505 3313.4 18 3515 3304.6 22.9 3525 3294.9 22.9 3535 3302.2 17 3545 3285 14.5 3555 3319 14.1 3565 3318.9 15 3575 3347.7 14.4 3585 3349.4 17.5 3595 3375.8 11.5 3605 3342.9 13.8 3615 3379 18.1 3625 3329.5 17.3 3635 3381.3 17.8 3645 3430.3 13.9 3655 3432.8 19.2 3665 3412.3 18.9 3675 3399.3 16.4 3685 3411.6 16.4 3695 3461.8 17.6 3705 3475.9 14.1 3715 3465.5 14.6 3725 3491.8 14.3 3735 3520.2 13.6 3745 3510.6 13.9 3755 3481.2 14.2 3765 3507.6 14.4 3775 3502.1 19 3785 3545.9 18.3 3795 3477.3 17 3805 3473.8 17 3815 3491.2 17 3825 3496.1 13.4 3835 3558.8 16 3845 3570.1 16.5 3855 3567.1 18.6 3865 3568.4 18.6 3875 3591.4 14.5 3885 3582.2 8.7 3895 3605.1 13.6 3905 3614.3 12.2 3915 3622.2 15 3925 3617.3 12.8 3935 3664.8 12.4 3945 3644.9 11.8 3955 3612.2 14.3 3965 3638.9 13.2 3975 3642.8 14.2 3985 3677.4 10.4 3995 3706.2 12.9 4005 3709.6 11.4 4015 3712.4 15.3 4025 3724.6 10.9 4035 3690.7 14.4 4045 3694.9 12.5 4055 3670.7 12.4 4065 3685.2 12.9 4075 3693.1 14.5 4085 3710.3 14.7 4095 3764.2 9.9 4105 3776.8 9.5 4115 3762 13.9 4125 3751 11.4 4135 3742.2 8.9 4145 3752.7 9.8 4155 3808.5 12.6 4165 3827.3 11.6 4175 3798.6 10.8 4185 3828.4 10.4 4195 3832.5 11.6 4205 3803.8 11.4 4215 3792.8 14.7 4225 3807.7 15.5 4235 3823.5 11.7 4245 3850.8 10.9 4255 3859.4 14.4 4265 3873.2 14.2 4275 3861.3 9.8 4285 3867.5 12.2 4295 3875.8 14.1 4305 3905.3 13.3 4315 3898.1 12.3 4325 3898 12.6 4335 3872.2 12.4 4345 3868.4 15.9 4355 3905.2 11.7 4365 3910.8 12.3 4375 3896.2 9.8 4385 3902.1 8.2 4395 3901.5 12.1 4405 3899 18.2 4415 3943.2 12.6 4425 3998.7 13.5 4435 3985.3 12.1 4445 4010.8 13.5 4455 4054.9 11.1 4465 4038.6 10.4 4475 4011.7 10.1 4485 4014.6 11.9 4495 3991.1 10.9 4505 4006.9 11.4 4515 4021.7 10.8 4525 4048.1 11.6 4535 4091.3 10.3 4545 4077.4 10.6 4555 4108.3 14.6 4565 4058.3 12.1 4575 4120.8 10.9 4585 4122.6 10.1 4595 4132.1 14.6 4605 4095.8 14.5 4615 4128.2 10.8 4625 4136.7 11.3 4635 4142.7 10.6 4645 4138.7 13.3 4655 4171.5 9.9 4665 4187 11.6 4675 4144.5 11.7 4685 4144.3 9.8 4695 4150.2 14.6 4705 4159.2 11.9 4715 4189.1 14.8 4725 4165.2 14.4 4735 4191.6 10.3 4745 4196.8 12.2 4755 4182.1 12.1 4765 4135.4 11.4 4775 4100.1 11.1 4785 4122.5 9.9 4795 4137.5 11.8 4805 4136.4 12.4 4815 4179.3 11 4825 4193.3 10.9 4835 4264.8 13.9 4845 4283.4 12.6 4855 4308.1 11.9 4865 4327.3 11.1 4875 4380 14.2 4885 4388.1 14.3 4895 4392.2 11.9 4905 4379.1 11.1 4915 4385.9 14.7 4925 4392.5 15 4935 4375.9 10.9 4945 4370.5 14.4 4955 4369.8 13.3 4965 4384.5 14.2 4975 4411.2 12 4985 4435.5 11.7 4995 4440.4 11.4 5005 4443.9 12.1 5015 4427.6 14.1 5025 4400.4 9.7 5035 4433.6 15.8 5045 4447.1 12.6 5055 4500.8 15.8 5065 4488.1 12.9 5075 4516.4 14.1 5085 4516.3 14.2 5095 4537 13.9 5105 4514.2 14.1 5115 4474.7 12.6 5125 4503 14 5135 4507.1 12.5 5145 4527.9 12.2 5155 4531.7 9.5 5165 4508.7 8.2 5175 4497.2 7.6 5185 4492.1 7.7 5195 4464.1 11.7 5205 4461.2 9.9 5215 4484.6 7.7 5225 4482.2 10.2 5235 4483.8 8.7 5245 4483.7 9.6 5255 4481.4 10.8 5265 4497 10.5 5275 4493.1 12.2 5285 4520.3 9.9 5295 4539.3 8.4 5305 4571 12.6 5315 4606.4 12.1 5325 4655.9 10.2 5335 4713.7 13.4 5345 4711.5 9.2 5355 4705.8 12.7 5365 4697.6 14.1 5375 4698.4 9.5 5385 4670 9 5395 4673.7 9.4 5405 4672.9 12.3 5415 4656.8 9 5425 4627.2 10.7 5435 4629.1 9.6 5445 4650.7 10.5 5455 4697.8 9.9 5465 4700.5 11.8 5475 4750.7 9.5 5485 4757.4 11.7 5495 4807 10.2 5505 4785.5 12.2 5515 4764.8 12.4 5525 4777.9 11.8 5535 4752.5 10 5545 4745.3 10.6 5555 4733.9 12.2 5565 4722.2 9.3 5575 4747.9 12.4 5585 4790.8 11.9 5595 4854.7 9.5 5605 4884.7 9.6 5615 4915.8 9.7 5625 4920.4 10.7 5635 4906 10 5645 4913.6 11.8 5655 4934.9 11.8 5665 4985.5 8.9 5675 4969 12.4 5685 4974.5 11.3 5695 4968.7 10.2 5705 4967.4 10.1 5715 4982.8 11.8 5725 4993.2 10.3 5735 5008.4 10.7 5745 5022.6 12.2 5755 5067.8 11.8 5765 5077.2 13.3 5775 5089.7 11.6 5785 5089.4 17.8 5795 5079.9 10.4 5805 5083.2 8.2 5815 5064.1 8.9 5825 5073.2 9.8 5835 5021.4 9.5 5845 5046.1 11.9 5855 5041.9 10.9 5865 5062.3 12.9 5875 5059.6 15 5885 5060.8 14.4 5895 5103.6 13.2 5905 5105.9 14.2 5915 5156.5 10.3 5925 5172.8 10.5 5935 5212.4 13.4 5945 5222.4 14.5 5955 5257.3 14.4 5965 5252.8 17.3 5975 5212 12 5985 5211.1 10.3 5995 5280.7 13.8 6005 5332 23.7 6015 5308 25.5 6025 5317.8 18.2 6035 5325.4 13 6045 5318.4 11.9 6055 5302.3 14.5 6065 5342.4 12.6 6075 5305.7 14.3 6085 5275.8 12.8 6095 5319 38.2 6105 5286.3 20.6 6115 5341.9 18.4 6125 5369.1 19 6135 5342.3 20 6145 5325.7 15.2 6155 5271.4 18.4 6165 5271.1 19.4 6175 5367.2 14.8 6185 5374.4 14.6 6195 5375.2 14.8 6205 5426.3 20.3 6215 5455 15.7 6225 5436.4 21 6235 5426.2 15.1 6245 5408.7 19.6 6255 5391.3 18.2 6265 5395 18.4 6275 5427.6 19 6285 5468.1 14.9 6295 5510.8 14.7 6305 5532.3 18.4 6315 5576.8 17.5 6325 5589.8 13.6 6335 5573.6 17 6345 5571.8 17.1 6355 5603 16.9 6365 5612.8 19 6375 5556 19.6 6385 5567.3 17.2 6395 5574.6 16.8 6405 5611.2 17.3 6415 5678.7 13.8 6425 5655.6 16.8 6435 5643.7 17.5 6445 5668 17.5 6455 5702.8 17.1 6465 5682.7 18.1 6475 5699.2 17.9 6485 5697.6 19.4 6495 5718.1 18 6505 5758.2 17.2 6515 5751.4 14.5 6525 5740.7 14.1 6535 5752.8 14.3 6545 5753.8 17.2 6555 5769.2 18.8 6565 5767.9 19.7 6575 5805.7 13.8 6585 5789.5 17.1 6595 5767.8 11.4 6605 5788.8 14.5 6615 5764.5 19.3 6625 5790.1 17.7 6635 5788.7 12.4 6645 5835.3 12.1 6655 5814.5 13.7 6665 5846.7 13.6 6675 5884.2 17.5 6685 5899 15 6695 5914 19 6705 5859 32.8 6715 5848 32.8 6725 5899.7 19 6735 5928 34.6 6745 5928 34.6 6755 5953 32.8 6765 6001.4 19 6775 5940 25.5 6785 5959.6 17.7 6795 5976 32.8 6805 6017.8 19 6815 6065.6 19.4 6825 5999 34.6 6835 6016.3 14.8 6845 5975 16.2 6855 6014 9.6 6865 6030.9 13.4 6875 6037 14.8 6885 6033 10.8 6895 6067.9 10.8 6905 6073 13.8 6915 6090.4 14.1 6925 6081.2 13.6 6935 6081.4 14.2 6945 6090.7 14.9 6955 6117.9 19 6965 6102.5 19.4 6975 6106.6 19.9 6985 6108.4 17.9 6995 6126.3 19.9 7005 6139.5 17.3 7015 6164.3 17.1 7025 6171.6 17.5 7035 6211.5 14.4 7045 6195 13.3 7055 6212 15.7 7065 6187.1 15.4 7075 6188.8 14.4 7085 6159.8 15.3 7095 6209.8 12.7 7105 6243 20 7115 6205 15.7 7125 6191.9 14.4 7135 6143 15.3 7145 6161.8 18.9 7155 6170.5 19.5 7165 6263.1 23 7175 6208 29.1 7185 6255.8 23 7195 6231 29.1 7205 6231 29.1 7215 6282.9 19.7 7225 6253.8 19.2 7235 6273 15.3 7245 6273.7 15.1 7255 6333 16.8 7265 6333.4 14.4 7275 6389.1 14.9 7285 6368.2 19.3 7295 6390.6 19.6 7305 6372.7 15.5 7315 6396.9 15.5 7325 6428 18.8 7335 6444.9 15.7 7345 6469 15.6 7355 6420.3 19.3 7365 6411.6 19.9 7375 6470.3 20.9 7385 6456.4 19.4 7395 6438.1 19.3 7405 6407.1 15.5 7415 6432.7 16 7425 6493.4 19 7435 6582.8 16 7445 6587.6 19.5 7455 6557.8 15.5 7465 6590.8 19.6 7475 6589.7 19.8 7485 6610.2 19.6 7495 6617.3 19.7 7505 6601.8 19.6 7515 6684.1 19.2 7525 6674.3 19.9 7535 6651.5 19.9 7545 6597.7 19.7 7555 6616.2 19.7 7565 6650.1 15.4 7575 6712 19.6 7585 6723.5 20.3 7595 6776.8 17.4 7605 6730.3 18 7615 6786.7 27.3 7625 6805 17.2 7635 6789.8 25 7645 6782 27.7 7655 6783.4 18.5 7665 6812 27.8 7675 6850.2 41.1 7685 6892.1 26.3 7695 6904.6 18 7705 6917.4 26.8 7715 6902.5 24.6 7725 6916.7 23 7735 6917.7 24.4 7745 6927.8 26.9 7755 6945 19.7 7765 6981.6 27 7775 6952.6 18.2 7785 6933.5 19.3 7795 7021.6 22.9 7805 7004.5 16.8 7815 6988.2 15.8 7825 7007 15.9 7835 7009.1 16.3 7845 7038.8 19.2 7855 7037.2 17.1 7865 7045.4 20.4 7875 7085.1 20.4 7885 7122.7 21.5 7895 7076.4 15 7905 7027.1 17.1 7915 7032.3 14.8 7925 7048.2 22.9 7935 7084.6 20.4 7945 7138.8 17.9 7955 7134.1 20.8 7965 7162.1 23 7975 7185.5 14.3 7985 7232.2 18.9 7995 7185.4 16.6 8005 7196.5 25.1 8015 7228 32.8 8025 7235 34.6 8035 7268.5 26.3 8045 7295 34.6 8055 7295 34.6 8065 7326 34.6 8075 7326 34.6 8085 7305.1 25.1 8095 7246.5 24.5 8105 7233 34.6 8115 7339.9 25.1 8125 7294.6 15 8135 7328 18.5 8145 7277.4 17.6 8155 7311.8 17.3 8165 7327.2 23.1 8175 7365 20.3 8185 7410.4 23.6 8195 7427.2 20.4 8205 7446.9 23.2 8215 7458.5 18.1 8225 7484.2 23.8 8235 7467 18.4 8245 7448.8 17.6 8255 7478 15.1 8265 7439.7 18.1 8275 7421.4 15.8 8285 7444.7 18.6 8295 7455.6 14.9 8305 7460.5 24.4 8315 7451 15.9 8325 7454.3 16.6 8335 7488.9 14.6 8345 7504.6 13.4 8355 7528.9 12.9 8365 7535.8 14 8375 7559.8 14.3 8385 7572 18.6 8395 7617.6 15.1 8405 7615.5 14.5 8415 7668 15.3 8425 7685.5 14.9 8435 7709.1 20.2 8445 7688.9 16.1 8455 7725.6 19 8465 7742.8 13.3 8475 7719.5 17.2 8485 7759.3 16.1 8495 7738.6 17.6 8505 7729.1 13.3 8515 7726.2 22.2 8525 7763.4 14.2 8535 7721 15.4 8545 7787.4 14.9 8555 7780.8 15.3 8565 7795.7 17.6 8575 7775.1 15.2 8585 7768.5 18 8595 7825.1 12.9 8605 7856.9 22.4 8615 7874.6 19 8625 7851 14.9 8635 7874 21 8645 7897.2 16.5 8655 7916.7 17.1 8665 7927.8 16.5 8675 7897.9 16.9 8685 7907.8 19.1 8695 7900.9 13.8 8705 7928.4 14.8 8715 7917.4 11.9 8725 7939 20.8 8735 7935.9 15 8745 7917.1 20.5 8755 7935.8 16.9 8765 7927.3 17.6 8775 7947.7 18 8785 7978.5 17.9 8795 7986.3 22.1 8805 7972.7 19.8 8815 7995.1 19.4 8825 8005.5 15.6 8835 7933.8 16.4 8845 7937.6 13.9 8855 7957.1 18.2 8865 7963.5 22 8875 8001.5 12.1 8885 7952.6 16.7 8895 7943.3 22 8905 7995.8 19.4 8915 7975.6 13.8 8925 7927.6 25.3 8935 7968.9 18.8 8945 7954.5 21.6 8955 7964.4 14.2 8965 7965.5 12.6 8975 7950.5 17.4 8985 7996.9 18.8 8995 8011.7 17.7 9005 8040.5 14 9015 8100.4 13.3 9025 8100.2 14.6 9035 8178.5 13.9 9045 8173.9 17.6 9055 8139.3 19.3 9065 8152.2 15.4 9075 8155.2 19.9 9085 8148.9 17 9095 8204.2 16.6 9105 8171.2 18.1 9115 8163.1 15.5 9125 8156.7 17.8 9135 8226.8 14.2 9145 8235.5 15.8 9165 8271 39 9175 8208.7 25.9 9185 8188.9 25.9 9195 8227.8 25.9 9205 8209.8 25.9 9215 8234.5 21.6 9225 8173 34.6 9275 8272.1 32 9285 8290.9 41 9295 8288.6 28.9 9305 8324.3 29 9325 8315.3 29.1 9335 8383.2 21.5 9345 8289.1 30.8 9355 8335.3 21.9 9365 8273.4 22.4 9375 8321.5 18.7 9385 8305.6 24.4 9395 8265.8 23.6 9405 8369 17.8 9415 8328.1 18.7 9425 8350.4 18.4 9435 8406 21.3 9445 8422 30.9 9455 8365 30.9 9465 8365 30.9 9475 8447.6 24.2 9485 8441 30.9 9495 8486.6 25.1 9505 8509 25.1 9515 8473 25.1 9525 8493.8 19.8 9535 8566.6 17.6 9545 8590.3 21.4 9555 8659.3 19 9565 8686.9 17.1 9575 8667.6 19.5 9585 8686 20.4 9595 8655.6 23.1 9605 8699.7 17.6 9615 8690.4 25.1 9625 8678.3 21.8 9635 8719.9 21 9645 8704.6 19.9 9655 8682.7 19.4 9665 8703.3 21.4 9675 8692.2 25.4 9685 8715 25.4 9695 8719.5 27.8 9705 8750 36.4 9715 8760 36.4 9725 8760 36.4 9775 8772 27.3 9785 8794.9 24.4 9795 8800 36.4 9805 8811.9 23.1 9815 8761 36.4 9825 8803.1 19.1 9835 8802.9 21.8 9845 8808.4 19.1 9855 8764.3 22.1 9865 8778.9 18.9 9875 8827.8 21.6 9885 8763.4 21.6 9895 8838.9 21.6 9905 8808.8 21.6 9915 8850 26 9925 8904 39 9935 8890 31.2 9955 8891.3 15.1 9965 8902.9 14 9975 8915.1 16.4 9985 8929.6 22 9995 8890.6 24.2 10005 8864.6 19.4 10015 8908.7 15.7 10025 8863 20.6 10035 8905.7 19.6 10045 8916.4 15.4 10055 8897.7 14.8 10065 8879 16.4 10075 8907.6 34.8 10085 8864.1 17.9 10095 8843.3 13 10105 8835 23.7 10115 8909.2 19.9 10125 8903 29.9 10135 8896.6 16.5 10145 8876.8 30.8 10155 8941.8 16 10165 8952.3 31.3 10175 8956.9 18 10185 8973.8 25.7 10195 9026.2 15.4 10205 9003.6 20.8 10215 9042 15.6 10225 9091.9 16.3 10235 9090.6 19.4 10245 9173.9 21.8 10255 9179.1 18 10265 9178.9 17.1 10275 9190.8 23.6 10285 9191.8 22.1 10295 9239.3 15.8 10305 9179.6 37.1 10315 9230.6 31.3 10325 9174.1 20.8 10335 9222 30.3 10345 9195.1 22.8 10355 9153.3 29.8 10365 9216.2 21.8 10375 9193.5 29.5 10385 9214.2 22.8 10395 9204.1 29.5 10405 9243.1 21.9 10415 9240.9 31.6 10425 9245 29.6 10435 9311.2 22.5 10445 9259.6 19.2 10455 9256.1 24.2 10465 9235.3 29.6 10475 9253.9 22.1 10485 9274.6 18.4 10495 9288.7 24.2 10505 9317.6 23.7 10515 9336 30 10525 9315.6 19 10535 9318.7 21.9 10545 9314.4 23 10555 9328.3 24.2 10565 9371.8 24.2 10575 9350.4 32.4 10585 9412.1 16.5 10595 9393.7 21.9 10605 9444.2 16.7 10615 9386.5 19 10625 9379.6 25.5 10635 9370.4 20.9 10645 9454.1 22.2 10655 9430.6 25.2 10665 9391.4 31.9 10675 9437.2 22.2 10685 9430.3 23 10695 9481 26 10705 9506 44.2 10725 9474 44.2 10755 9540 26 10765 9559 32.5 10785 9565.3 19 10795 9591.1 20.2 10805 9577.7 30.3 10815 9603.4 20.3 10825 9588.9 19.1 10835 9553.7 22.4 10845 9574.2 13.6 10855 9582.4 20.2 10865 9594.4 20.4 10875 9615.7 15.1 10885 9607.8 23.6 10895 9622.6 32.1 10905 9612.9 23 10915 9633 18.2 10925 9618.2 22.6 10935 9628 21.3 10945 9560.3 19.7 10955 9567.6 20.2 10965 9540.9 24.1 10975 9524 41.6 10995 9539 33.8 11015 9574.1 24.1 11025 9527.2 22.1 11035 9511.3 29.8 11045 9551.7 31.7 11055 9541.4 29.5 11065 9576.8 31.2 11075 9611.3 29.6 11085 9604.2 31.3 11095 9638.1 23.3 11105 9631.4 18.4 11125 9660.7 18.9 11135 9660.8 17.4 11145 9670.4 15.1 11155 9655.4 31.9 11165 9696.6 19.1 11175 9744.3 20 11185 9768.1 16 11195 9777.8 19.6 11205 9837.5 23.4 11215 9837.5 23 11225 9836.4 30.8 11235 9902.2 19.9 11245 9906.9 22.9 11255 9898.8 11.9 11265 9977.2 32.1 11275 9943 19.1 11285 9941 32.5 11295 9934 33.8 11305 9993 28.6 11315 9996.5 20.3 11325 9944.4 26.8 11335 9958.7 31.7 11345 10023.7 18.4 11355 10018.9 23.5 11365 10045.5 23.7 11375 10045.5 25 11385 10038.6 20.4 11395 9986.7 29 11405 10008.4 20.8 11415 10021.8 22.5 11425 10035.6 36.3 11435 10023.1 16.9 11445 10069.2 25.6 11455 10067.7 29.1 11465 10065.9 21.1 11475 10016.6 23.7 11485 10024.1 25.3 11495 10057.3 25.2 11505 10023.1 24.8 11515 9994 28.9 11525 9985.9 29.5 11535 9985.9 29 11545 9994.8 31.2 11555 10055.1 21.3 11565 10068.4 21.1 11575 10077.5 20.9 11585 10095.7 25.6 11595 10086.6 16.3 11605 10097.5 25.2 11615 10076.8 21.8 11625 10058.8 20 11645 10104 28.6 11665 10117.7 21.2 11685 10090 31.2 11705 10163.2 23 11725 10134 28.6 11745 10146.4 20 11765 10188 27.3 11785 10244 36.4 11825 10156 37.7 11855 10162 29.9 11865 10148.9 54.2 11875 10140.3 75.4 11885 10141.7 69.9 11895 10150.5 78.4 11905 10163.6 82.4 11915 10177.3 82.1 11925 10190.6 80.9 11935 10206.9 81.5 11945 10227 84.3 11955 10248.9 88 11965 10269.3 91.4 11975 10284.6 94.3 11985 10292.2 95.6 11995 10292 93.9 12005 10286.2 90.4 12015 10277.1 86.3 12025 10266.7 83 12035 10257.3 81.5 12045 10251.1 83.3 12055 10249.8 89 12065 10252.8 96.5 12075 10259.2 103.1 12085 10267.9 106.3 12095 10278.3 104.6 12105 10291.3 100.1 12115 10305.2 94.8 12125 10316.8 89.7 12135 10325.8 87.4 12145 10332 87 12155 10337 85.4 12165 10344.5 84.9 12175 10354.3 88 12185 10362.3 93.5 12195 10364.7 99.3 12205 10359.4 102.8 12215 10346.5 102.5 12225 10330 99.5 12235 10314.4 95.4 12245 10301.8 90.5 12255 10294.4 85.5 12265 10294.3 80.7 12275 10300.8 77 12285 10310.5 75.3 12295 10322.4 75.7 12305 10336.5 77.7 12315 10353 80.8 12325 10372 84.6 12335 10393.7 88.6 12345 10418 91.8 12355 10441.1 92.4 12365 10461.5 90.3 12375 10479.1 85.2 12385 10493.3 77 12395 10504.9 69 12405 10513.7 64.1 12415 10517.7 62.5 12425 10523.4 67 12435 10535.7 78.6 12445 10540.2 86.6 12455 10532.4 87.9 12465 10516.3 84.1 12475 10495.9 77.1 12485 10475.3 68.9 12495 10456.7 60.7 12505 10440.5 52.6 12515 10426.7 45.2 12525 10415.7 38.7 12535 10407.7 33.4 12545 10402.9 29.6 12555 10401.6 27.6 12565 10403.9 27.9 12575 10410.1 30.7 12585 10420.4 36.3 12595 10435 45 12605 10454.2 57.1 12615 10478.2 73.1 12625 10507.1 93 12635 10539.5 115.9 12645 10573 139.9 12655 10605.4 163.3 12665 10634.4 184.4 12675 10657.6 201.4 12685 10672.9 212.4 12695 10677.8 215.8 12705 10670.5 210 12715 10651.4 194.9 12725 10623.3 172.7 12735 10591.6 147.2 12745 10562 122.4 12755 10539.9 102.4 12765 10530.6 91.1 12775 10536.6 90 12785 10554.5 95.9 12795 10580.7 105.4 12805 10611.2 115.1 12815 10642.5 123.4 12825 10671 129.4 12835 10693.3 131.3 12845 10706.9 128 12855 10716.6 123.3 12865 10730 123.5 12875 10752.7 131.8 12885 10782.9 144.9 12895 10815.6 157.8 12905 10844.8 165.8 12915 10866.3 165.3 12925 10881 157.4 12935 10891.4 144.4 12945 10899.7 128.6 12955 10908.5 112.2 12965 10919.9 97.6 12975 10936.5 87.1 12985 10959.5 82.3 12995 10986.7 82.5 13005 11015.6 87 13015 11043.5 94.8 13025 11067.6 105 13035 11085.3 116.6 13045 11095.6 128.1 13055 11098.9 137.1 13065 11096.2 141.3 13075 11088.7 138.9 13085 11078.5 131.2 13095 11068.6 119.9 13105 11061.5 107.1 13115 11062.4 97 13125 11076.1 92.3 13135 11106 94.3 13145 11148.9 100.9 13155 11196.4 107.9 13165 11241 111.5 13175 11280.3 111.3 13185 11313.6 108 13195 11340.1 102.6 13205 11359 95.6 13215 11369.6 88 13225 11371.7 80.4 13235 11366.7 73.4 13245 11356.9 67.8 13255 11344.8 63.9 13265 11332.6 62.5 13275 11322.7 64.2 13285 11317.2 69.4 13295 11318.6 78.8 13305 11327 91.6 13315 11339.4 105.1 13325 11352.4 116 13335 11362.4 121.3 13345 11367.1 118.9 13355 11367.8 110.9 13365 11366.9 100.4 13375 11367 90.4 13385 11370.3 84.1 13395 11378 82.6 13405 11389.9 84.9 13415 11405.4 89.9 13425 11424.2 96.2 13435 11445.9 102.7 13445 11469.9 108 13455 11495.9 111.1 13465 11523.5 110.7 13475 11551.9 105.9 13485 11580 98 13495 11606.2 88.3 13505 11629.2 78.2 13515 11648.9 68.3 13525 11665.5 58.9 13535 11679.2 50.3 13545 11690.4 43 13555 11699.2 37 13565 11706 32.9 13575 11710.9 30.9 13585 11714.1 31.3 13595 11716.1 34.5 13605 11716.9 40.7 13615 11716.9 50.3 13625 11716.3 63.7 13635 11715.3 81 13645 11714.1 102.7 13655 11712.4 128.1 13665 11707.6 154.2 13675 11698.2 178.4 13685 11685 199.3 13695 11669.8 216.2 13705 11654.3 228.1 13715 11639.9 234.3 13725 11627.6 234.4 13735 11618.4 227.9 13745 11613.3 215.1 13755 11613.3 197.3 13765 11619.2 176.4 13775 11631.8 155.1 13785 11651.8 136.1 13795 11679.9 121.8 13805 11717 115.1 13815 11762.4 117.3 13825 11812.3 125.7 13835 11861.7 137.4 13845 11906.1 148.9 13855 11940.9 157.2 13865 11964.4 161 13875 11978 160.9 13885 11983.1 157.4 13895 11981.3 151.1 13905 11974 142.8 13915 11962.7 133 13925 11948.9 122.3 13935 11934 111.4 13945 11919.6 100.9 13955 11907.1 91.5 13965 11897.9 83.6 13975 11892.4 77.4 13985 11890.7 72.8 13995 11892.5 69.6 14005 11897.8 67.7 14015 11906.6 66.9 14025 11918.6 67 14035 11933.8 67.9 14045 11952.1 69.5 14055 11973.4 71.6 14065 11997.7 74 14075 12024.7 76.6 14085 12053.8 79.4 14095 12084.2 82.5 14105 12114.7 85.9 14115 12144.6 89.8 14125 12172.8 94.2 14135 12198.4 99.3 14145 12220.5 105 14155 12238.1 111.5 14165 12250.3 118.9 14175 12256.5 127.2 14185 12257.5 136 14195 12255.1 145 14205 12250.7 153.8 14215 12245.9 161.9 14225 12242.2 168.8 14235 12241.2 174.3 14245 12244.2 177.9 14255 12250.9 179.7 14265 12261.1 180 14275 12274.4 178.9 14285 12290.2 176.6 14295 12308.3 173.2 14305 12328.1 169.1 14315 12349.4 164.3 14325 12371.6 159 14335 12394.4 153.5 14345 12417.4 147.9 14355 12440.2 142.4 14365 12462.3 137.2 14375 12483.3 132.5 14385 12503.1 128.4 14395 12521.6 124.8 14405 12538.9 121.8 14415 12554.8 119.4 14425 12569.4 117.7 14435 12582.6 116.6 14445 12594.5 116.2 14455 12604.9 116.4 14465 12614 117.4 14475 12621.7 119 14485 12628 121.3 14495 12632.8 124.4 14505 12636.1 128.2 14515 12638 132.7 14525 12638.4 138 14535 12637.5 144 14545 12635.3 150.5 14555 12632 157.7 14565 12627.6 165.4 14575 12622.3 173.5 14585 12616.2 181.9 14595 12609.4 190.7 14605 12601.9 199.8 14615 12594 209 14625 12585.7 218.4 14635 12577.1 227.9 14645 12568.4 237.4 14655 12559.6 246.8 14665 12550.8 256.1 14675 12542.2 265.3 14685 12533.9 274.2 14695 12525.9 282.8 14705 12518.4 291.1 14715 12511.3 299.1 14725 12504.6 306.7 14735 12498.3 314.1 14745 12492.4 321.1 14755 12486.9 327.9 14765 12481.8 334.3 14775 12477.1 340.4 14785 12472.8 346.3 14795 12468.9 351.8 14805 12465.4 357.1 14815 12462.2 362.1 14825 12459.4 366.8 14835 12456.9 371.2 14845 12454.9 375.3 14855 12453.1 379.2 14865 12451.8 382.8 14875 12450.7 386.2 14885 12450 389.3 14895 12449.7 392.1 14905 12449.6 394.7 14915 12449.9 397.1 14925 12450.5 399.2 14935 12451.5 401.1 14945 12452.7 402.7 14955 12454.3 404.1 14965 12456.1 405.3 14975 12458.3 406.2 14985 12460.7 406.9 14995 12463.4 407.4 15005 12466.4 407.7 15015 12469.7 407.8 15025 12473.3 407.7 15035 12477.1 407.3 15045 12481.2 406.8 15055 12485.5 406.1 15065 12490.1 405.2 15075 12495 404 15085 12500 402.7 15095 12505.4 401.3 15105 12510.9 399.6 15115 12516.7 397.8 15125 12522.7 395.8 15135 12529 393.6 15145 12535.4 391.3 15155 12542.1 388.8 15165 12549 386.2 15175 12556 383.4 15185 12563.3 380.4 15195 12570.8 377.3 15205 12578.4 374.1 15215 12586.2 370.7 15225 12594.2 367.2 15235 12602.4 363.6 15245 12610.8 359.8 15255 12619.3 355.9 15265 12627.9 351.9 15275 12636.7 347.8 15285 12645.7 343.5 15295 12654.8 339.2 15305 12664.1 334.8 15315 12673.4 330.2 15325 12682.9 325.6 15335 12692.6 320.8 15345 12702.3 316 15355 12712.2 311 15365 12722.2 306 15375 12732.3 301 15385 12742.4 295.8 15395 12752.7 290.6 15405 12763.1 285.3 15415 12773.5 279.9 15425 12784.1 274.5 15435 12794.7 269 15445 12805.4 263.4 15455 12816.1 257.8 15465 12827 252.2 15475 12837.8 246.5 15485 12848.7 240.8 15495 12859.7 235 15505 12870.7 229.2 15515 12881.8 223.4 15525 12892.9 217.6 15535 12904 211.7 15545 12915.1 205.8 15555 12926.3 199.9 15565 12937.5 194 15575 12948.6 188.1 15585 12959.8 182.2 16000 13313.1 188.5 17000 14182.1 205.8 18000 15051.1 228.9 19000 15920.1 257.2 20000 16789.1 272.3 21000 17658.1 280.3 22000 18527.1 293.1 23000 19396.1 316.9 24000 20265.1 349.7 END YR 14C age Error calBP YR BP YR x[] y[] s.y[] 10 164 5 30 117 5 50 76 6 70 109 4 90 120 5 110 111 4 125 109 4 140 132 4 160 200 10 180 186 13 200 179 12 220 124 13 240 101 4 260 128 4 280 188 4 300 253 4 320 319 4 340 349 4 360 331 4 380 324 5 400 306 4 420 306 4 440 349 6 460 354 11 480 387 13 500 414 10 520 483 12 540 528 11 560 597 12 580 639 10 600 605 11 620 576 9 640 613 9 660 648 14 675 719 4 690 779 10 705 800 4 720 809 9 737.5 849 12 757.5 854 12 780 867 9 800 930 8 820 901 10 840 934 9 860 919 8 880 904 7 900 914 9 920 961 10 940 1027 10 960 1051 9 980 1088 10 998.5 1110 3 1010 1119 13 1030 1118 12 1050 1109 12 1070 1181 12 1090 1189 12 1100 1202 3 1120 1190 13 1140 1201 13 1160 1209 10 1180 1255 9 1200 1278 8 1220 1254 8 1240 1277 10 1260 1278 13 1280 1327 14 1300 1395 11 1320 1433 12 1340 1448 14 1360 1493 14 1380 1487 14 1400 1516 14 1420 1560 12 1440 1562 13 1460 1565 13 1480 1557 13 1500 1565 14 1520 1598 13 1540 1643 13 1560 1671 11 1580 1691 11 1600 1685 13 1620 1726 14 1640 1757 13 1660 1732 13 1680 1706 12 1700 1759 9 1720 1796 13 1740 1826 13 1760 1830 13 1780 1833 14 1800 1823 13 1820 1857 9 1840 1896 14 1860 1895 13 1880 1934 10 1900 1961 9 1920 1957 11 1940 1988 9 1960 2010 9 1980 2012 9 2000 2040 9 2020 2043 10 2040 2046 10 2060 2091 9 2080 2118 10 2100 2099 12 2120 2122 11 2140 2144 11 2160 2198 10 2180 2197 10 2200 2207 12 2220 2239 12 2240 2208 12 2260 2198 11 2280 2169 12 2300 2192 10 2320 2240 10 2340 2286 12 2360 2411 12 2380 2424 11 2400 2413 13 2420 2415 11 2440 2422 11 2460 2422 10 2480 2450 9 2500 2480 8 2520 2489 10 2540 2478 11 2560 2502 10 2580 2488 10 2600 2468 10 2620 2505 15 2640 2468 15 2660 2449 15 2680 2442 12 2700 2442 14 2720 2521 16 2740 2545 10 2760 2644 13 2780 2683 12 2800 2725 13 2820 2728 12 2840 2715 12 2860 2761 12 2880 2797 13 2900 2816 12 2920 2794 10 2940 2815 11 2960 2854 9 2980 2865 12 3000 2886 10 3020 2898 10 3040 2897 11 3060 2923 3 3070 2914 13 3090 2943 12 3100 2924 3 3120 2958 13 3140 2942 13 3160 2948 12 3180 2989 13 3200 2951 12 3220 3024 14 3240 3011 14 3260 3030 14 3280 3083 13 3300 3041 14 3320 3041 14 3340 3073 12 3360 3107 12 3380 3155 12 3400 3189 9 3420 3204 11 3440 3189 13 3460 3203 14 3480 3289 13 3500 3305 14 3520 3280 16 3540 3280 12 3560 3304 11 3580 3333 13 3600 3344 10 3620 3341 13 3640 3393 13 3660 3414 15 3680 3389 12 3700 3452 12 3720 3466 11 3740 3505 11 3760 3475 11 3780 3511 15 3800 3459 13 3820 3473 12 3840 3546 12 3860 3562 15 3880 3574 12 3900 3593 12 3920 3606 14 3940 3635 15 3960 3610 13 3980 3634 12 4000 3711 12 4020 3698 13 4040 3662 12 4060 3666 13 4080 3688 14 4100 3773 10 4120 3732 13 4140 3746 9 4160 3803 11 4180 3803 13 4200 3786 10 4220 3784 14 4240 3823 12 4260 3838 14 4280 3846 12 4300 3867 13 4320 3877 12 4340 3867 20 4360 3898 11 4380 3871 8 4400 3865 12 4420 3960 11 4440 3960 13 4460 4030 10 4480 4034 15 4500 3973 14 4520 4013 11 4540 4067 11 4560 4075 18 4580 4130 10 4600 4072 14 4620 4149 12 4640 4107 12 4660 4199 12 4680 4121 9 4700 4144 12 4720 4141 16 4740 4237 13 4760 4140 13 4780 4083 8 4800 4079 11 4820 4162 13 4840 4237 13 4860 4272 12 4880 4381 13 4900 4399 13 4920 4388 18 4940 4377 14 4960 4345 14 4980 4385 13 5000 4456 13 5020 4421 14 5040 4427 16 5060 4501 20 5080 4492 15 5100 4534 14 5120 4482 18 5140 4532 15 5160 4544 16 5180 4514 12 5200 4458 13 5220 4476 17 5240 4471 14 5260 4505 14 5280 4517 14 5300 4577 14 5320 4624 18 5340 4731 16 5360 4691 18 5380 4666 18 5400 4666 17 5420 4669 18 5440 4651 19 5460 4720 19 5480 4768 19 5500 4813 19 5520 4787 20 5540 4726 20 5560 4746 20 5580 4802 20 5600 4865 20 5620 4857 18 5640 4867 18 5660 4959 18 5680 4972 18 5700 4941 18 5720 4912 17 5740 5031 18 5760 5020 17 5780 5119 15 5800 5070 11 5820 5058 13 5840 5014 13 5860 5040 12 5880 5042 12 5900 5089 12 5920 5122 12 5940 5164 15 5960 5250 14 5980 5201 13 6000 5311 13 6020 5288 14 6040 5301 14 6060 5300 18 6080 5261 18 6100 5307 21 6120 5357 16 6140 5346 19 6160 5258 17 6180 5339 16 6200 5417 16 6220 5424 17 6240 5392 17 6260 5395 15 6280 5408 16 6300 5489 15 6320 5570 16 6340 5556 16 6360 5592 16 6380 5557 16 6400 5552 16 6420 5640 16 6440 5643 16 6460 5668 17 6480 5694 17 6500 5713 17 6520 5695 18 6540 5741 17 6560 5757 16 6580 5776 16 6600 5713 19 6620 5765 17 6640 5795 16 6660 5778 16 6680 5847 18 6700 5845 18 6720 5834 18 6740 5914 19 6760 5939 18 6780 5913 14 6800 5962 18 6820 5986 19 6840 5931 18 6860 6037 20 6880 5986 11 6900 6081 15 6920 6065 15 6940 6054 15 6960 6104 16 6980 6073 18 7000 6094 17 7020 6136 17 7040 6160 18 7060 6143 17 7080 6127 17 7100 6176 18 7120 6151 17 7140 6110 17 7160 6189 17 END Inits list( theta0=50, pinv = 200) Results model # simple calibration, simple linear peat accumulation INTCAL98 node mean sd MC error 2.3% 2.5% median 97.5% 97.7% start sample p 0.006177 0.002423 1.143E-4 0.004663 0.004672 0.005305 0.01341 0.0135 501 109500 theta[1] 102.1 33.67 1.439 57.41 58.25 92.72 191.1 191.8 501 109500 theta[2] 162.1 21.54 0.8349 129.5 130.1 157.0 216.8 217.4 501 109500 theta[3] 199.1 14.78 0.4652 173.5 174.0 196.6 233.2 233.8 501 109500 theta[4] 232.7 10.35 0.1523 211.0 211.6 232.3 254.4 254.8 501 109500 theta[5] 268.0 10.18 0.2604 243.2 244.0 268.6 287.3 287.7 501 109500 theta[6] 301.5 14.43 0.588 263.3 264.1 304.8 321.1 321.5 501 109500 theta[7] 338.6 21.13 0.9592 282.4 282.9 344.8 360.7 361.0 501 109500 theta[8] 372.1 27.79 1.297 298.8 299.2 380.7 398.5 398.9 501 109500 theta[9] 402.1 33.96 1.599 312.9 313.2 412.8 433.2 433.6 501 109500 theta[10] 432.1 40.23 1.902 326.8 327.2 444.7 468.5 468.9 501 109500 theta[11] 462.1 46.56 2.204 340.2 340.6 476.6 504.0 504.5 501 109500 theta0 72.06 39.94 1.741 21.27 22.24 60.6 178.4 179.2 501 109500 model # simple calibration, simple linear peat accumulation 1986 curve node mean sd MC error 2.3% 2.5% median 97.5% 97.7% start sample p 0.005725 0.001805 8.081E-5 0.004568 0.004577 0.005267 0.01229 0.01244 501 99500 theta[1] 97.94 29.62 1.042 49.19 50.01 94.28 180.7 182.4 501 99500 theta[2] 160.4 20.45 0.608 123.1 123.7 158.8 208.8 210.1 501 99500 theta[3] 199.0 15.54 0.3482 168.6 169.1 198.6 230.7 231.3 501 99500 theta[4] 234.0 12.32 0.1545 209.0 209.3 234.1 258.0 258.4 501 99500 theta[5] 270.7 11.37 0.2285 246.3 246.9 271.2 291.8 292.1 501 99500 theta[6] 305.6 13.27 0.451 266.8 267.5 307.6 325.5 325.8 501 99500 theta[7] 344.2 17.48 0.7151 285.5 286.1 347.9 364.4 364.7 501 99500 theta[8] 379.2 22.2 0.9578 301.9 302.5 384.1 401.3 401.7 501 99500 theta[9] 410.4 26.77 1.176 316.1 316.6 416.4 435.5 435.8 501 99500 theta[10] 441.7 31.53 1.395 330.2 330.9 448.6 470.6 471.0 501 99500 theta[11] 472.9 36.39 1.614 344.3 345.1 480.8 506.3 506.7 501 99500 theta0 66.69 34.44 1.26 12.3 13.1 61.99 166.8 168.6 501 99500 These results are similar to those reported by Christen et al.: 95%hpd mode p 0.0045-0.171 just over 0.005 theta0 20-210 flat over 50-200 although they used slightly different priors. More complex model model # nonlinear peat mass accumulation { for (i in 1:nDate) { xdate[i] ~ dnorm(mu[i], tau[i]) tau[i] <- 1/(sigma[i]*sigma[i] + sigma.curve[i]*sigma.curve[i]) mu[i] <- interp.lin(theta[i], x[], y[]) sigma.curve[i] <- interp.lin(theta[i], x[], s.y[]) theta[i] <- theta0 -log(1-a*m[i]*pinv) / a } for (j in 1:6){ # calculate ages at arbitrary points in peat core age[j] <- theta0 -log(1-a*m2[j]*pinv) / a } theta0 ~ dunif(min.theta, max.theta) mu.pinv <- -log(0.005) pinv ~ dlnorm(mu.pinv,4) p <- 1/pinv mu.a <- log(0.0002) a ~ dlnorm(mu.a,4) } Data list(nDate=16, min.theta=0, max.theta=6000, m2=c(0,20,40,60,80,100)) Data from Table 1 of Christen et al. Point Escuminac Peat Core m[] xdate[] sigma[] 7.3 470 110 12.2 1100 90 17.4 1500 120 24.4 1830 90 31.9 1630 90 39.8 2260 80 45.8 2230 130 49.1 2850 130 52.7 2950 80 58.2 3340 120 65.9 4320 90 70.3 4300 110 82.3 4670 140 84.6 5140 110 96.3 6460 110 101.9 7250 130 END Also load one of the calibration curves above. Christen et al. used the 1986 one. Inits list( theta0=200, pinv = 30, a=0.00015)